When does cash first fall below the assumed floor, and which evidence supports the forecast? This original fictional exercise focuses on finding the first constrained week rather than a period average. The task is to build a cash roll-forward and first-exception memo, not copy a confident conclusion. It is not a live recommendation, client record or employer assessment.
The inputs and the question
A short-term cash forecast is about the sequence and reliability of receipts and payments. This guide focuses on the first exception and how to investigate it. It does not prescribe a restructuring action or treat a forecast as verified cash.
| Supplied item | Fictional input |
|---|---|
| Week-one opening cash | 2 million |
| Expected receipts | 1 million |
| Payments due | 2.5 million |
| Assumed liquidity floor | 0.8 million |
Use the supplied inputs together. When dates, units or definitions are not given, identify the gap rather than silently filling it with a convenient assumption. An actual assignment may require more detail than this deliberately limited case.
Work through the base case
Week-one closing cash is 2 + 1 − 2.5 = 0.5 million. Relative to the supplied 0.8 floor, the gap is 0.3. The floor is a fictional planning assumption, not a legal or regulatory minimum.
Each following week begins with the previous ending balance. Receipts and disbursements should have an evidence date and owner. A positive total across thirteen weeks can hide an earlier inability to make a payment.
The arithmetic or evidence check is only one part of the answer. Explain the definition that makes it valid and what remains outside the exercise. Do not convert a result from this case into a claim about a real company, market or client.
The full fictional 13-week roll-forward
All amounts are millions; receipts and payments are supplied scenarios, not verified commitments. The 0.8 floor is the same fictional planning assumption in every week.
| Week | Opening cash | Receipts | Payments | Closing cash | Gap to floor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.50 | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| 2 | 0.50 | 1.80 | 1.40 | 0.90 | 0.00 |
| 3 | 0.90 | 1.20 | 1.40 | 0.70 | 0.10 |
| 4 | 0.70 | 1.70 | 1.30 | 1.10 | 0.00 |
| 5 | 1.10 | 1.10 | 1.50 | 0.70 | 0.10 |
| 6 | 0.70 | 1.90 | 1.20 | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| 7 | 1.40 | 1.00 | 1.60 | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| 8 | 0.80 | 2.00 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| 9 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 1.80 | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| 10 | 0.80 | 1.90 | 1.30 | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| 11 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 1.90 | 0.70 | 0.10 |
| 12 | 0.70 | 2.10 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 0.00 |
| 13 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 1.60 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
Carry each closing balance into the next opening balance. The first gap is week one even though closing cash at week 13 is 1.00. Ending-period liquidity does not fix an earlier payment-date problem.
Change the assumption and follow the consequence
If 0.4 million of expected receipts moves into week two, week-one closing cash falls to 0.1 and the floor gap becomes 0.7. Carry that timing change forward; do not simply delete the receipt.
Keep the unchanged inputs visible. State whether the change is an observed fact or a scenario you introduced. If the information needed to calculate a fuller result is missing, say what you would request instead of manufacturing precision.
The interpretation to avoid
Averaging weekly cash, netting an uncertain receipt with a committed payment or assuming every creditor will defer payment changes the evidence.
A useful response names the limitation without abandoning the task. Show the part you can establish, then explain the condition or document needed for the next conclusion. Being explicit about that boundary is different from refusing to reason about the case.
Build the evidence artifact
Create a weekly roll-forward, source notes and an exception list. Distinguish a permitted planning scenario from a decision requiring authorized operating, financing or legal review.
Answer these questions before presenting it:
- Which receipts are dated commitments versus estimates?
- Which payments are fixed, restricted or conditional?
- Who verifies each input and explains changes from the last version?
For your own practice, write the supplied facts, your method, the base result, the changed assumption and one unresolved question on a single page. Label professional work, public-data projects and fictional exercises accurately. Remove confidential data and do not use the example to imply a decision you did not own.
What to use next
Use the short-term liquidity forecasting preparation guide to connect the exercise to a readiness and next-resource decision. Compare the adjacent preparation task if your gap is different. The primary-source background supplies concept or role context; the facts and worked exercise above are original and fictional.
The existing hub supplies preparation context; it is not legal or restructuring advice. Inspect scope before choosing support. A readable and reproducible explanation is the immediate objective; this case does not promise an interview, qualification, investment result or a particular search ranking.